Plain-speak on the AKD phenomenon in Sri Lanka

‘AKD-led government’s relationship with India should be what it has been and will be: umbilical’ | Photo Credit: PTI

Setting aside all the traditions of family-based political dominance, the election of 55-year-old Anura Kumar Dissanayake (AKD) who is ‘relatively unknown’ from the JVP (People’s Liberation Front) led by the NPP (National People’s Power), as President of Sri Lanka came as a true serendipitous surprise. He is – the unknown – more than one. Although he was ‘about’ for decades in Sri Lankan politics as a Marxist politician schooled in the Janatha Vimukhti Peramuna (JVP), and a cabinet minister (2004-05) in the coalition government of Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, AKD has been swimming under the radar of most Lankans. – watching. But he is ‘relatively unknown’ also in the important sense (important throughout South Asia but especially in Sri Lanka) that he is ‘not known as a relative’ or a descendant of a political family.

Of all the early analyzes I found of AKD’s dramatic victory, the best came from one acute observer of Lankan affairs from a Tamil Lankan perch but not a ‘standard political columnist’, Sivanandini Duraiswamy. A Jaffna-based literateur who is, officially or not, a sociologist, sums up the scene in a note that is a fact and a comment: “The mandate that one opposes what Mao Ze Dong called ‘the decadence of the state, human suffering and the darkness of society. This is a reaction to the austerity of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the recklessness of the Colombo elite. This is a paradigm shift where monolingual outsiders who were members of the party that rebelled twice in 1971 and in 1987-89 (resulting in the deaths of 80,000 Sinhalese youth) are now leader. Furthermore, AKD is not a dominant Sinhala caste, which all 15 Heads of Government, except one, are in their 75-year history. They are very happy, self-made and charismatic.

After giving a legitimate AKD, he then explained some interstices of the AKD phenomenon. Chief among these, as I recount the observations I add, are:

Voting and challenges

AKD’s dramatic victory must be seen in light of the hard facts. The most important thing is politics: If 42% of voters have voted for him, 58% have voted for someone else in a scattered but decisive way against him. The majority of non-AKD, if not anti-AKD, including most of the majority Sinhalese voters who voted in the ‘old UNP’ style for two former ‘UNPer’s the second-in-the-race, Sajith Premadasa, the son of the late Perdana. Minister R. Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe, taken together. This AKD-negative cutoff also includes, almost all Tamil voters in 10 non-Sinhala majority districts in the north, east and central highlands.

This means that AKD must not only consolidate its Left-leaning and Left-supporting Sinhala support base but also enlist the support of non-Left Sinhalese and Tamil Lankans. If AKD wants to form a stable government, it must be done with JVP and MP NPP itself and others. The most logical and, in Sri Lanka, tried and tested way to do this would be through the coalition route. Or through ‘external support’ – ever tenuous.

The next biggest challenge is financial. AKD must reconcile its past ideological position with the harsh reality of Sri Lanka’s dependence on IMF funding. How he can convince his support base – his ‘bread and butter’ – of the inevitability of an austerity regime that denies itself as the price of IMF funding, remains to be seen. If Ranil Wickremesinghe is tried and tried within two years, AKD will have a tighter calendar to work with. If Sri Lanka’s government is a minefield, its political economy is a dry lake. Initial reports indicate that AKD will negotiate, not eliminate, the Ranil government’s convergence with the IMF. If AKD holds consultations with the outgoing President’s economic team, it can lead to a calibrated increase in decision-making. Ranil Wickremesinghe may have made political mistakes, especially in the handling of Rajapaksa’s orders. But an understanding of economics is not a resource to be underestimated.

Thirdly and from the Indian point of view, a very serious challenge to AKD’s Leftward mindscape is the ideological voltage that will be directed from China. Even if one ignores the speculation about China having a financial role in AKD’s election campaign, one cannot help but notice Beijing’s reflexive influence on the government in Colombo. Next to touching India, the emerald island shares with its immediate neighbor all the friction it brings. Sri Lanka’s distant but deep ocean with China has caused no friction. If IMF financing leads to austerity that is not satisfactory in the short term, Chinese support cannot write a risky pledge note in the long term.

Democratic vote renewal

AKD could do no better than recall the question posed by the great Lankan Marxist to those pushing for ‘Sinhala-only’ politics in Parliament in 1956. “Do you want two languages ​​and one nation, or one language and two countries?” How AKD gets around the language and religious ruins in their country depends on the truthfulness and validity of their leadership. In Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunge’s experience of proposing federal principles and devolution to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and other Tamil political formations can be instructive for them. I said, with pride, that AKD’s statement at the inauguration was no less than redemption: “Democracy helped me win.” Some chose me, and others didn’t. But I promise to work hard to earn the trust of those who did not vote for me as well.

In his note dated September 24, 2024, Sivanandini Duraiswamy gave the exciting news and synoptically stated that “(AKD) took the first necessary step. He visited the Hindu Temple in Kandy today to receive a warm welcome. Bravo, this is what I will say, bravo AKD .

A distinguished former Indian diplomat, Ramu Damodaran, recently drew my attention to a new play, ‘Counting and Cracking’ by Lankan playwright S. Shakthidharan which he says is currently ‘charming’ New York audiences. Anand Giridharadas, the founding editor of the online journal The.Ink, has interviewed Shakthidharan, where he said: “I think the best way to strengthen democracy after realizing how fragile it is – instead of being afraid of it – is to listen to the truth. People who are different from us and find a way to agree to disagree.

Skepticism in the form of hard-knocked realism marks India’s general attitude towards its neighbours. But this time, India should look at the AKD phenomenon with faith in the renewed power of the democratic voice. The internal gravity of the AKD-led government must be ideological, the external reach must be empirical. But the relationship with India, which has both internal and external dimensions must be what it has been and will always be: umbilical.

Gopalkrishna Gandhi is the former Indian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka