NEW DELHI: The BJP is all set to retain power in Maharashtra with Mahayuti’s allies – the Shiv Sena and the NCP – and could be in for a very close contest in Jharkhand, according to poll predictions for the two states. The polling project polls show a clear lead for Mahayuti with 155 seats, while the opposition alliance Maha Vikas Aghadi managed to get 122 seats in the 288-member state assembly. The other can get 11 seats. However, in Jharkhand the contest will be close. According to poll estimates for the state, the BJP-led NDA will win 41 seats, marking a majority in the 81-member assembly while the Hemant Soren-led INDIA bloc could win 37 seats.
In Maharashtra, three polls – Peoples Pulse, Matrize and Chankya Strategi have predicted a clear majority for Mahayuti, while the other three – P-Marq, Dainik Bhaskar and Poll Diary have predicted Mahayuti ahead of MVA, but short of a majority.
Exit polls from Matrize predict 150-170 seats for the BJP and its allies in Maharashtra with 48 percent of the vote, giving the Congress and its other allies just 110-130 seats with 42 percent of the vote. The polls gave the others 8 to 10 seats, with a 10 percent vote share.
People’s Pulse gave Mahayuti NDA 175-195 seats while giving only 85-112 seats to MVA and 7-12 to others in Maharashtra. P-MARQ has predicted a total of 137-157 seats for Mahayuti and 126-146 seats for INDIA Block MVA. An exit poll by Poll Diary predicts NDA to win 122-186 seats and MVA 69-121 while forecasting 12-29 seats for others in Maharashtra. Chanakya Strategies, another poll, has predicted 152-160 seats for Mahayuti and 130-138 seats for MVA while giving 6-8 seats to others in Maharashtra.
In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 105 seats and its ally Shiv Sena won 56. However, the two allies disagreed over the post of chief minister after Uddhav Thackeray parted ways with the BJP. . He then formed the MVA government with the help of Congress and NCP which won 44 and 54 seats respectively. In 2022, the BJP took revenge after Eknath Shinde split the Shiv Sena to ensure the fall of the MVA government. Shinde was appointed chief minister by the BJP. A year later, Ajit Pawar rebelled against his uncle Sharad Pawar and split the NCP to complete Mahayuti.
NDA advances in Jharkhand close contest
In Jharkhand, the BJP is projected ahead of the JMM-led INDIA bloc by some polls, while some predict a clean sweep for chief minister Hemant Soren. The exit polls for Jharkhand predict 40 seats for the BJP-led NDA and 38 for the JMM-led INDIA bloc in the state.
Matrize Exit poll has predicted 42-47 seats for NDA and 25-30 seats for INDIA bloc while giving 0-4 seats for others. People’s Pulse has projected 44-53 seats for NDA and 25-37 seats for INDIA Bloc. Have given 5-9 seats to others. Chanakya Strategies exit polls say the BJP-led NDA is likely to win 45-50 seats in the state, while the JMM-led alliance could win 35-38 seats. They say others can get 3-5 seats. Times Now-JVC has predicted 40-44 seats for BJP led NDA and 30-40 seats for INDIA bloc.
However, Axis My India has predicted a clean sweep for the JMM-led alliance in Jharkhand and estimates that the INDIA bloc will win 53 seats. The polls have given NDA 25 seats and Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JKLM) two seats. According to the projection, the JLKM could damage the NDA’s prospects in the state by running with a majority of Mahto’s votes.
The only polling agency that has predicted a hung house in Jharkhand is Dainik Bhaskar. This shows the mandate of the people who are divided vertically with both alliances having between 36-40 seats, shorter than the halfway mark of 41.
In the 2019 Assembly elections, JMM emerged as the single largest party in Jharkhand with 30 seats, while BJP could only manage 25. JMM formed the government in alliance with Congress which won 16 seats and RJD which had one seat. .
It will be interesting to see how the polls come out when the votes are counted on November 23. With two big back to back failed polls out this year, all political parties, and even pollsters, will wait for the final results with bated. breathe.
