Former President Donald Trump has been somewhat against him as he seeks a second term as president.
Widespread laws, a biased media and a sudden shift in the main political rival (Vice President Kamala Harris took over the Democratic ticket from incumbent President Joe Biden in late July) have all presented unique challenges to Trump.
But there are also many who work for the former president.
Twenty-four points favorable to Trump were told by the famous pollster Nate Silver, who noted that the former president had eliminated Harris’ lead.
“Donald Trump has gained ground,” Silver said.
Important data guru took to the site and listed out 24 factors – “factors that have historically determined the election,” according to Silver – favoring Trump in the lead-up to the November 5 general election, and it’s a fascinating read if only how. apolitical all their observations.
The first factor Silver cites is the fact that while Harris enjoys a slim lead in the popular vote, the more important electoral college voters are not happy. He notes that “the Electoral College bias favors Republicans by about 2 percentage points.”
The second factor includes the still high inflation rate and how “sensitive” voters are generally about the issue.
The third factor piggybacked off from the second point and basically Silver said that the data can show the economy rebounding, consumers do not feel practical.
Factors four and five are also related, as they relate to incumbents generally performing poorly in global elections and the growing role of populism in these elections.
Factor six is ​​a familiar cry: illegal immigration and all the ways the Biden-Harris administration is seeing the numbers rise.
Factor seven is how Harris doesn’t have enough time (or the ability) to explain why he has flip-flopped on some critical issues, like fracking.
Factors eight, nine, ten and eleven all involve social sentiment, as Silver notes that the “cultural vibe” has shifted, voters are nostalgic for the Trump presidency, and Democrats have lost their once-dominant grip on black voters. Silver added that many young male voters, in particular, feel lost and distanced from voting for Democrats.
The twelfth factor mentions that one of Harris’s best attacks on Trump – that is, attacking his age – has been completely neutered due to his previous commitment before he ran for re-election (Biden would have been 86 if he saw a second presidential term. ).
Interestingly, factor number thirteen is considered an advantage for Harris by some. Specifically, Silver said Harris’ truncated presidential election season meant he didn’t have time to fix problems with his campaign. Many of Harris’s staunchest critics have actually argued that the shorter tenure has benefited Harris, as he simply has had less time to make mistakes.
Factor 14 notes that Harris is a woman (which appears to be detrimental to the voting bloc), and factor 15 notes that the highly polarized nature of the media makes it nearly impossible for good criticism of Trump to rise above the static.
The sixteenth factor is a backhanded compliment, as Silver effectively states that Trump is a good conman, which will obviously be used in political elections.
Factors 17 and 18 both continue to focus on Trump, as both factors note that the former president has been better at cultivating “strange” or strange voters, while concerns about the January 6 raid on the Capital continue to fall on deaf ears.
Factors 19 and 20 involve foreign relations, as Silver notes that the world is unstable during the Biden regime. The data guru added that the Israel-Hamas conflict has also divided the Democratic voter base like never before.
Factors 21 and 22 involve strong endorsements that Trump has received, including from heavyweight third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and tech mogul Elon Musk.
The last two factors are somewhat abstract.
First, Silver describes how Trump has generally exaggerated the political potential of failed assassination attempts, of which the president has survived two recently. It’s one problem that Harris can’t do anything about.
Finally, Silver called out Harris for typically “running on vibrations” and noted that he “failed to articulate a clear vision for the country.”
Laid out in this fashion, it is clear that both Harris and Trump have quite a bit of work cut out for them ahead of the November 5 election.
This article first appeared in The Western Journal.
