He finally got her.
Not in Russian collusion. Call Ukraine. January 6 riots. Classification document. Or mean tweets.
They finally got Donald Trump, after all, to file a false financial sex story coverup document.
Who but Donald Trump could be accused of such a thing? As CNN’s Fareed Zakaria said a few days ago: “I doubt the New York indictment will be brought against a defendant whose name is not Donald Trump.”
It was jarring to hear my CNN colleague Jake Tapper say “guilty” 34 times straight, as the verdicts rolled in on Thursday afternoon. A historic moment that further divides an already divided nation.
And it’s equally jarring to see text after text pop up on the phone from certainly non-MAGA Republicans, but also not Aja Trumpers, all sounding the same note: I don’t like this person, and now I have to vote for him.
Lest you think it’s just an anecdote or a sign that Scott has a strange friend, the Trump campaign reported a flood of online contributions within minutes of the verdict. crash that system.
Poll showing a guilty verdict won’t make much difference to how most Americans vote. But Republicans are crazier than their party’s presidential nominee — and, according to polls, likely the next The president of the United States – was charged with 34 felonies that some can fully explain, in the very jurisdiction of the Democrats.
Actually, prosecution argued that Hillary Clinton might have won if Trump didn’t pay Stormy Daniels to keep quiet, then you should punish him for covering up a number of campaign finance violations that he was never charged with or convicted of in the first place. The Department of Justice and the Federal Election Commission declined to pursue this novel theory, but it found a home in the Manhattan district attorney’s office.
It sounds crazy just typing it. Having never been stuck on “Russia stole the election” in 2016, Democrats have moved to rationalize this loss of Hillary Clinton as caused by Trump paying to silence a porn star with whom he allegedly had sex in 2006. (Trump maintains that it did not happen; Daniels said.)
The consensus in my circle is that this will backfire massively, as Republicans become energized. Even Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, no Trump fan himself, tweeted: “These charges should not have been brought in the first place. I hope the conviction will be overturned on appeal.
I watched two groups of voters in the poll after – senior citizens and what we in the political business call “low info flow” Voters who use very little news other than fleeting headlines. Parents still remember “the old days,” when presidents didn’t spend all their time in courtrooms, and less-informed voters may not know that Trump is now a criminal.
Biden has strength with older white voters, while Trump does better with the non-conscious type. If either group turns against Trump, it could lead to polls for Biden. I’m not betting, but if I’m in Trump’s command center, that’s someone I’ll be tracking closely over the next few weeks.
The wrong decision kicked off a crucial June for a sleepy campaign. Biden has been stuck in the mud for months, hovering around a 38% approval rating (historically low), and trails Trump in national and swing state polls. Voters remain angry with Biden over inflation and immigration. His job deal has not been above water since August 2021, following the ugly, chaotic and deadly withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
In late June, Biden and Trump will debate in Atlantawith perhaps the shadow party crasher on stage in the form of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Step 1 in reviving the flailing campaign is for Biden to see Trump impeached. Step 2 is for Biden to win the June 27 debate.
On June 1, Trump won. What is the story of July 1st? What if, after Trump’s conviction and the debate, Biden has not moved in the polls in a month?
If you thought Democrats were panicking right now (which Politico reported just this week), preparing for what to do next — important party members are thinking aloud about replacing Biden on the ticket if he can’t advance as a convicted felon.
For Trump, the message is clear: The only important verdict will come from the American people on November 5. and legal milestones.
Scott Jennings is a former special assistant to President George W. Bush and CNN’s senior political commentator. @ScottJenningsKY
