For almost ten years, Donald J. Trump has done, said and survived what any other politician would do.
He even saw his support Raise it after four sets of criminal charges last year – including charges for falsifying business records that he was ultimately found guilty of.
Polls cannot tell how voters will react to a verdict that has never happened. Most voters don’t pay attention to the trial, and asking voters about hypotheticals is always difficult. With a track record of political resilience, there is no reason to expect MAGA’s loyal base to suddenly collapse after a wrongful verdict – or even go to jail. It is possible that he will not lose support.
But in a close election in a closely divided state, the losses could be significant. While Mr. Trump has survived many controversies, he has also suffered political punishment for his actions. After all, he lost the re-election. And this cycle, there is one reason to wonder whether Mr. Trump can now be more vulnerable: He depends on the support of many young and nonwhite voters who have not voted for him in the past, and who may not prove as loyal as. those who have stood by his side from the beginning.
In the last six months, many polls have asked voters to consider a hypothetical scenario where Mr. Trump is convicted in court. It is important to emphasize that the results of this poll should not be interpreted as a simulation of how voters would behave after being convinced in the real world. These questions do not mimic how voters will react to the full context and facts of the case, or to Republicans’ claims of support, or to coverage on Fox News. Instead, he made a hypothetical conviction in front of the respondent.
However, the results show that many of Mr Trump’s supporters are understandably uncomfortable with the idea of ​​supporting criminals. This is a line that Mr. Trump has not crossed before, and some of his supporters are even willing to tell pollsters that they will vote for President Biden if Mr. Trump is found guilty.
In a New York Times/Siena College battleground poll in October, about 7 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters said they would vote for Mr. Biden if Mr. Trump were found guilty in an unspecified criminal trial. This may not seem like a large number, but whatever it is, it will be decisive in the near election season. More recently, a Marquette Law School poll conducted during the money trial found that a modest lead for Mr. Trump among registered voters nationwide would be a fourfold lead for Biden if Mr. Trump is found guilty.
To repeat: This result should not be interpreted as an indication of what will happen after this belief. And even as the numbers fall, many voters may eventually turn to Mr. Trump — especially Republicans, or those who may believe the process is “rigged” against them. In a Times/Inquirer/Siena battleground poll earlier this month, voters were split on whether Mr. Trump could get a fair trial. His allies will do everything they can to convince voters that he doesn’t get it.
But Mr. Trump is not only counting on the support of Republicans and MAGA loyalists in the conservative information ecosystem. His strength in the polls increasingly depends on his surprising strength among voters from traditional Democratic constituencies, such as young, non-white and irregular voters. Many of those voters are registered Democrats, backed Democrats in the race for the US Senate and may have supported Mr Biden in the last election. This is not the proven core of Mr. Trump’s support. This is a group of voters whose loyalties have yet to be determined – let alone tested.
The Times/Siena and Marquette Law polls both show that these young and non-white voters may be inclined to return to traditional partisanship if they are to be trusted, with Mr. Biden returning to a more typical leader among young and non-whites. white. voters. In fact, almost all of the unusual demographic patterns among young, non-white, non-regular voters disappeared when voters were asked how they would vote if Mr. Trump were impeached.
In a Times/Siena poll, 21 percent of Mr. Trump’s young supporters said they would support Mr. Biden if he were to be trusted. By comparison, only 2 percent of Trump supporters age 65 and older do the same. In addition, 27 percent of black voters who supported Mr. Trump returned to Mr. Biden, compared to only 5 percent of white respondents.
In the real world, the verdict may not save Mr. Biden’s support among young, non-white voters. But with Mr. Trump relying on the support of many voters who would not normally support him, the need to help Mr. Biden may be there.
For one, voters didn’t see this coming. In a Times/Siena poll during the trial earlier this month, only 35 percent of voters in battleground states expected Mr. Trump to be impeached. A majority, 53 percent, expected him to be found not guilty.
And voters haven’t paid much attention. Only 29 percent of voters said they paid “a lot” of attention to the trial, and they were disproportionately Biden supporters. Only 10 percent of young voters (18 to 29) said they were paying attention.
With many voters doubting their convictions and having already done everything, the verdict may come as shocking news to millions. This does not mean that young, non-white Democratic voters will turn their backs on Mr. Biden, but it appears to be easier than if they had been paying attention and expecting.
One of the better explanations for Mr. Trump’s strength among disaffected voters is that he has benefited from a lack of news — that political responsibility has faded from voters’ minds.
That may no longer be true. It may not be clear for some time whether those voters will shift away from Mr. Trump and whether the shift will last. But in a close race, anything can be enough to make a difference.
