It has been a devastating week for Hezbollah and the Lebanese people.
Bombs hidden in the group’s fences and walkie-talkies killed dozens of people and wounded thousands – many of them Hezbollah members. An Israeli strike in Beirut kills two of Hezbollah’s top commanders. And Israel has bombed what it says are 1,600 militant sites in Lebanese territory, killing hundreds and displacing thousands.
Israel says its goal is to secure the border so tens of thousands of people who fled Hezbollah fire nearly a year ago can return to their homes. But it is not clear whether the new operation – with successful tactics – will work.
“No one in or out of defense has a clue how to translate this great operational achievement into political gain, into a real victory that will end the war in the north,” columnist Nadav Eyal wrote in Israel’s Yediot Ahronot newspaper. .
“As long as Hezbollah retains its firepower, the northern border will never be able to return to normal.”
Hezbollah began firing into Israel days after the October 7 attack by Hamas sparked the war in Gaza. The aim was to deploy Israeli forces in the north to help ally Hamas, which – like Hezbollah – is backed by Iran. Lebanese militant groups have said they will end their attacks if a cease-fire is reached in Gaza, which appears unlikely.
Hezbollah’s response to last week’s escalation appears modest. Hundreds of rockets and drones fired into northern Israel – including areas further from the border than before – caused few casualties and only scattered damage.
The militants fired a long-range missile early Wednesday targeting Tel Aviv for the first time, signaling a clear escalation. The Israeli military said it intercepted the projectile, and there were no reports of casualties or damage.
Experts say Hezbollah is holding other weapons as a reserve.
Israel’s air power has its limits
Footage on Monday of an Israeli attack sending up dust and smoke appeared grim.
The American-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, NATO’s campaign in Libya in 2011, and the US-led war against the Islamic State group in 2014 all began with airstrikes that lit up the skies. In each case, the war dragged on for months or years, and ground forces played an important role.
Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza began with nearly three weeks of heavy airstrikes in the area, followed by a full-scale ground invasion. Nearly a year later, Hamas is still fighting and holding hostages.
With Hezbollah, Israel has so far pursued a narrower goal – not the disarmament or defeat of the Lebanese militant group, but a new arrangement in which the militants withdraw from the border and end their attacks.
But even that cannot be done without a ground invasion.
There is also the risk of mission-creep, as America discovered after years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the Taliban. NATO airstrikes initially aimed at preventing the feared massacre in Benghazi turned into a seven-month regime change campaign from Libya that has not yet fully recovered.
Hezbollah may have capabilities that have yet to be seen
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant boasted that Monday’s strike alone had eliminated tens of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and missiles.
“This is the most difficult week for Hezbollah since its establishment,” he said.
Hezbollah has admitted to suffering a heavy blow, but even if Gallant’s assessment is correct, it still has considerable resources.
“The rocket units are still active, Hezbollah has absorbed the initial shock, and the war has only just begun,” said Qassim Qassir, a former Hezbollah member who wrote a book about the group. “Hezbollah only uses a small part of its capabilities.”
This militant group was established with the help of Iran after Israel’s 1982 invasion and occupation of Lebanon, and seeks the destruction of Israel. The city has survived countless battles with Israeli forces, replacing several commanders killed over the years and re-arming after a month-long war in 2006.
Hezbollah claims to have around 100,000 fighters. Before the latest war, it is believed to have some 150,000 rockets and missiles, including long-range projectiles capable of hitting anywhere in Israel, and some precision-guided missiles.
More sophisticated weapons may be reserved because they cannot cause an all-out war.
Sarit Zehavi, a former Israeli military intelligence analyst and founder of the Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank focused on the northern border, said Hezbollah is hiding weapons in various countries, including in areas close to Beirut. strong presence.
“Hezbollah builds redundancy, so it spreads ammunition and infrastructure everywhere, and that’s why so many targets are attacked, because it’s everywhere,” he said.
Hezbollah is more advanced militarily than Hamas. Hezbollah also has a larger area in which to operate, extensive supply lines that connect more directly to Iran, and a network of tunnels that may be more extensive than the one in Gaza.
In the event of a ground invasion, Hezbollah fighters could be joined by thousands of fighters from Iran-backed groups from Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere in the region.
Both of them don’t have good options
Israel says it has no immediate plans for a ground invasion but is preparing for one, and has sent thousands of war-hardened troops from Gaza to its northern border. If the air campaign fails to bring Hezbollah to heel, the Israeli leadership will be tempted to dispatch them.
Even if the goal is simply to carve out a buffer zone to make the north safer, the risks are huge.
Israelis are largely insulated from air war by Israel’s range and missile defense system, but a ground invasion would result in more casualties and a protracted battle for soldiers and reserves exhausted by the war in Gaza.
Hezbollah waged an 18-year insurgency against Israel when it last took control of Lebanon, eventually forcing it to withdraw, and another longer occupation could prove costly.
Israel has faced international outrage over its war in Gaza, including an investigation by the world’s highest court, and risks greater isolation if it launches a similar campaign in Lebanon.
Hezbollah also has some good options.
Stopping rocket fire into the north in the face of Israeli pressure will be seen by supporters – and Iranian patrons – as a humiliating capitulation and abandonment of the Palestinian people.
Escalating the attack, by launching more sophisticated rockets or targeting major cities like Tel Aviv, could lead to a more formidable Israeli response or an all-out war that devastates Lebanon – with Hezbollah risking the blame.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has faced criticism from many Lebanese who accuse him of tying his country’s fate to Iran and calling for war at a time of financial ruin.
That left it stuck with the status quo, in which Israel carried out increasingly heavy attacks while Hizbollah made what it did with a relatively restrained response.
For Hezbollah, and the Lebanese people, it may make the coming weeks even worse.
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Associated Press reporters Melanie Lidman in Tel Aviv, Israel, and Bassem Mroue in Beirut contributed to this report.
