Iran’s government is very nervous and has made significant diplomatic efforts with countries in the Middle East to gauge whether it can scale back Israel’s response to the missile attack earlier this month and — if that fails — help protect Tehran, a source familiar with the matter told CNN. .
Iran’s anxiety stems from uncertainty over whether the US can convince Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear sites and oil facilities, and the fact that the region’s most important proxy militia, Hezbollah, has been weakened by Israeli military operations in recent weeks. source said.
The US has been consulting with Israel on plans to respond to Iran’s Oct. 1 attack, and US officials have made it clear that they do not want Israel to target Iran’s nuclear sites or oil fields. US President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, their first conversation in nearly two months, telling them that Israel’s retaliation must be “proportionate.”
The US’s Gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar, have also expressed concern to the US about a potential attack on Iran’s oil facilities, which could have negative economic and environmental impacts for the entire region, Arab diplomats said. CNN.
The Biden administration is deeply concerned that the tit-for-tat attack between Iran and Israel, which began earlier this year after Israel attacked what Iran says is a consulate building in Damascus, could turn into a major regional war that draws the US in. , too.
A major part of the fear is that US influence with Israel appears to have steadily declined over the past year. Except for operations in Gaza, Israel has increasingly disregarded the US’ calls for more restraint in Lebanon, where Israel’s powerful bomb campaign and ground attack have killed over 1,400 people since the end of last month.
Israel also did not consult the US before carrying out a mass attack that blew up thousands of fences and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives last month, or before killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and raising a cease-fire proposal that had been submitted by the US and France less than 48 years ago. hours earlier.
Israel’s security cabinet has yet to reach a decision on how to proceed, an Israeli official told CNN on Friday. And while the gap between the U.S. and Israeli positions is narrowing, that may not be the case, U.S. officials say.
“We can’t tell whether they voted or not,” a senior administration official said of Israel’s cabinet discussions, expressing skepticism about the level of transparency about what Israel shares with the US. The official suggested that they should not “put too much stock in the manipulation” of the Israeli government.
As of last week, Israel had not given assurances that it would not target Iran’s nuclear facilities, CNN reported.
Israel has been planning an attack on Iran’s nuclear capabilities for decades, and just two years ago it simulated an attack on them in a military exercise. Israel is also suspected of assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years, and Iran’s nuclear facilities have been under siege from cyber attacks, most likely from Israel—the most famous being the Stuxnet virus, which penetrated Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.
‘Our attack will be strong’
Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued a strong warning to Iran about his country’s response on Wednesday.
“Our attack will be powerful, precise, and most importantly – surprising. They will not know what happened and how it happened,” said Gallant.
The Gulf states, in general, are keen to stay on the sidelines of the conflict, Arab diplomats say. When Iran has publicly warned that any party seen as an aid to Israel will be considered as aggressors, it is also unlikely that Iran’s neighbors will explicitly come to Tehran’s defense in the event of an Israeli attack.
But Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have told the US and Iran they will not allow Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran, Arab diplomats and other sources familiar with the matter told CNN. Jordan will also protect its airspace from unauthorized interference, regardless of its origin, Jordanian officials said.
The US does not believe Iran wants to be involved in a full-scale war with Israel, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera this week that Netanyahu “is the only one who wants to fight and burn the region. Stay in power.”
But the US is still urging Tehran, through back channels, to calibrate its response if Israel strikes, officials said.
While Qatar regularly talks to Iranians and reports back to the US what they say, US officials say that ultimately “we don’t know what (Iran) is going to do. Key voices in Iran will have different ideas about what and how to respond to Israel, but they will depending on the scale and scope of Israel’s anticipated move, another US official said.
The official said that messaging from Iran has been consistent both publicly and privately since Tehran launched a missile attack on Israel earlier this month and that there has been no significant change in messaging.
Iran has been eager to seek help from Saudi Arabia to prevent an Israeli attack and use its influence with Washington to help find a solution to the crisis, Arab diplomats told CNN.
Officials from each country have met three times in less than a month, and Araghchi went to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to “consult on regional developments” and “try to stop the crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon and Gaza,” he told the local. the media.
The world is watching Israel’s every move as it ponders how to respond. But at least until Saturday at sundown, Israel will stop to mark Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement and the holiest day of the Jewish year. And although it is not impossible for Israel to start taking action, shops, restaurants and other services will be closed, public transport will not operate and even the country’s main airport – Ben Gurion in Tel Aviv – will be closed.
CNN’s Kayla Tausche, Dania Karni and Katie Bo Lillis contribute reports.
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