A general view of Tehran after several explosions were heard, in Tehran, Iran, October 26, 2024. | Photo Credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR
“Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on October 1, hours after Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israel, which hit at least two military bases. The attack, Iran’s second direct attack on Israel this year, has prompted a strong response from Israel’s political leadership. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said the Iranian attack was an opportunity for Israel to “destroy” Iran’s nuclear program. Others speculated that Israel could target Iran’s critical energy infrastructure or ports to exact a heavy price on the Islamic Republic.
But Prime Minister Netanyahu appears to have ignored calls for mass retaliatory strikes on Iran’s critical infrastructure and instead opted to carry out pointed strikes, targeting Iranian military facilities there. According to Israeli media, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out three waves of attacks in Iran, hitting at least 20 targets in Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan and Shiraz.
In the first wave, Israeli warplanes targeted Iran’s air defenses, and in the second and third waves, Iran’s ballistic missile and drone manufacturing and storage centers were targeted, according to IDF officials. The first explosion was heard at 2:15 a.m. local time in Tehran, and at 6 a.m., the IDF announced that the attack had ended and that all planes had returned home. Iran acknowledged “Israeli aggression”, but downplayed the impact of the attack. State media reported that ‘Iranian air defenses ‘successfully intercepted and countered Israeli aggression’.
In carrying out coordinated attacks on military facilities in Iran, some 1,600 km away from Israel, the IDF has demonstrated its long-range operational capabilities. This is also the first time Israel has attacked Iran. When Israel responded to Iran’s first direct attack, it targeted the radar system in Isfahan and did not even claim it. This time, Israel’s public statement that it is carrying out a round-the-clock operation in Iran indicates that the Iran-Israel conflict has entered a new phase. But at the same time, by limiting attacks on military facilities, Israel allows Iran to claim that the attack was thwarted and that normal life was not affected.
US pressure is yielding results
It is now clear that the US has pressured Israel not to target Iran’s critical infrastructure. Any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure will prompt a strong response from Iran (an IRGC-related Telegram channel has claimed that Iran has warned America that it will target oil facilities across the gulf if the oil site is attacked).
US President Joe Biden has publicly expressed his opposition to Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear sites and raised doubts about the effectiveness of attacks on oil facilities. American media reported earlier this month that Mr. Netanyahu told Mr. Biden in a conversation that he would target Iranian military sites. The US agreed to send the THAAD anti-missile system along with 100 soldiers to operate in an effort to bolster Israel’s defenses. When the US confirmed the deployment of THAAD last week, it was clear that an Israeli attack was ahead.
The ball is now in Iran’s court. Iran has previously warned that it will retaliate against Israeli attacks on its soil. But the initial response from Iran’s military and state media was aimed at downplaying the attack. For Mr. Netanyahu, the main purpose of the attack was to send a clear message to the rulers in Tehran that the state of Israel can reach anywhere in Iran. But at the same time, his decision to launch a limited strike, even after Iran launched several 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, shows signs of caution.
The absence of major Israeli attacks on critical infrastructure allows Iran to claim that it has successfully deterred Israeli attacks and retreated from regional wars. But if it wants to retaliate, it can trigger counter-retaliation from Israel, and West Asia will see a shooting match between its two key players.
Published – 26 October 2024 22:49 IST