Vice President Kamala Harris has a tremendous campaign advantage — she’s neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump.
Before President Biden rejected his re-election bid on July 21, voters were not enthusiastic about a rematch between these two men, who were born before the age of television. Americans crave alternatives, and party affiliation is secondary.
Thus, factors such as Biden’s element of surprise, the switch/change effect, Trump’s inability to deal with change, the rapid unification of Democrats, the dominant support of the media and the potential rekindling of the Obama 2008 coalition – are sprinkled with political fairy dust. , joy, and “Yes, He Can” – generated a significant political momentum for Harris that could only carry him across the November 5 finish line.
Based on national polling trends and battleground states, he could win by a squeaker — meaning Trump could lose.
But Trump can’t lose! So, if they do, expect a 2020 post-election replay with lots of ranting, raving and contrived evidence. Trump’s team will launch allegations of corrupt, stolen, fraudulent elections, judicial weapons, illegal voters, foreign interference and rigged voting machines, which could lead to legal challenges all the way to the Supreme Court. Our adversaries will be watching for signs of electoral instability, democratic unrest and possibly a national security crisis.
In addition, a Trump loss would certainly mean an internal civil war within the Republican Party. I believe that a “war” is inevitable between the most powerful Trump forces and those who want to move on from the Trump era and win the White House in 2028 without a member of the Trump family on the ticket.
Like all civil wars, this one could be brutal, as GOP opposition forces see Trumpism as political death with a shrinking voter base. I am publicly leaving the Republican Party in January 2021 thanks to Trump’s toxic brand. Now, identifying as a Republican is not about conservative governing principles but automatic loyalty to Trump, with MAGA forces controlling the party machine from top to bottom.
In 2016, the “Trump Party” was born (some would say “hijacked.”) After Trump’s unexpected victory, Republican Party leaders and activists who initially supported anyone other than Trump purged, resigned in disgust or agreed with him.
After Trump’s defeat in 2020, it would be an act of disloyalty for Republicans to deny that Trump actually won re-election. So is the failure to defend or acquit his actions on January 6 or legal issues. So is the act of supporting the 2024 alternative candidate.
Having one family in control of the main national political party is an anomaly in our country. Daughter-in-law Lara Trump, sworn in as chairwoman of the Republican National Committee in March, naively spoke the truth in February when she said at a fundraiser, “Every single penny will go to the number one and only project of the RNC — which is to elect Donald J. Trump is the president of the United States…”
Naturally, candidates, officials and humble party officials did not appreciate her honesty about the family mission.
If Harris beats Trump, will he step down as party leader? Probably not. Unlike Biden, Trump will not be ousted. Biden has never been and does not represent himself as a Democrat. Trump and his family, in contrast, are Republicans. Therefore, moving beyond the Trump era without someone named Trump would take a tectonic shift.
Who will lead the GOP through the dangerous terrain of a non-MAGA future? It’s probably not Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), who in this scenario will only lose as well.
So who will it be? Some familiar and obvious names: Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who each look in the mirror and see the future president. Add a new name with the popular Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who has a controversial history with Trump – has not all, though? The experience will shock these leaders to create a new path for the party, it may be led by one of them, or there will be a new leader.
Speaking of new leaders, the post-Trump era needs rising stars to counter established MAGA warriors such as Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). What about real warriors? A Lt. a colonel in the Air National Guard who piloted missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. His name is Adam Kinzinger – once considered a GOP rising star – former Illinois congressman who served from 2011 to 2023.
After the 2020 election, then-Rep. Kinzinger rejected Trump’s claims of a stolen election. He was shocked by what happened on January 6, 2021, and then voted for impeachment. Kinzinger later served on the House Select Committee to investigate the Capitol attack. Trump put the target behind him, and Kinzinger is not running for re-election in 2022.
Then, on August 15, Kinzinger fearlessly spoke the truth about Trump to more than 20 million primetime viewers who watched the Democratic National Convention. His message appeals to ex-Republicans like me who want the party to come home. Kinzinger said, “Donald Trump is a weak man who pretends to be strong; small people pretend to be big. He is a man who does not believe and pretends to be right. He’s a perpetrator who can’t stop being a victim.”
Kinzinger dares to say what many in the Republican Party (including elected officials) are thinking: “The Republican Party is no longer conservative. It has changed its allegiance from principles that serve a purpose to people who only serve their own purposes.
Shockingly, Fox News omitted Kinzinger’s speech. Are they protecting the audience from the truth? If Trump loses, those viewers and voters will need to hear the truth to free the Republican Party from Trump’s control. But first, the party is destined to fight for the future.
Myra Adams is an opinion writer who served on the creative teams of two Republican presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.
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