Former President Donald Trump has been found guilty of 34 counts of felony falsifying business records in Manhattan’s criminal trial, adding another layer of uncertainty to an unprecedented campaign.
As a convicted felon, Trump is not deterred from continuing campaign for president, because the Constitution does not prohibit candidates from running for president even if they have been convicted of a crime. In fact, there is a precedent for candidates running from behind bars: in 1920, Socialist Party candidate Eugene V. Debs ran for president from a federal prison in Atlanta.
Trump is the first former US president to be found guilty of felonies, and the first major party candidate to run for office after being found guilty of a felony. Here’s how his beliefs could change the 2024 campaign:
How can Trump campaign after conviction
Now that he has been convicted, Trump will certainly appeal the verdict handed down by the jury, and he will be able to return to the campaign when the process is over.
The next development in the case will come at the sentencing, which is currently scheduled for July 11. Justice Juan Merchan has a wide discretion in sentencing and whether the punishment is visible. Trump faces a maximum of four years in prison and a $5,000 fine for each of the 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. Sentencing options available to Merchan include prison, probation, conditional discharge, fines or house arrest.
The judge could restrict travel, such as restricting Trump from leaving the country and taking away his passport, but Merchan said he did not want to interfere with his ability to campaign.
“I would think that the judge would not dare to interfere with his right to speak to the American public because the right of voters to be informed as well,” said John Coffee, a professor at Columbia Law School and an expert on corporations. governance and white collar crime.
In a recent survey of dozens of cases brought by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office in which falsification of business records was the most serious charge at arraignment, attorney and author Norm Eisen found that about one in 10 of those cases resulted in a prison sentence.
“I think it’s amazing,” said Caroline Polisi, a criminal defense attorney and professor at Columbia Law School. “Many commentators have said that he would not go to jail because the logistics of dealing with the Secret Service would be too much. On the other hand, if you say that he should be treated like any other defendant, we have a lot of data that says 90% of other defendants would not go to jail in this situation .
The impact of the conviction on Trump’s ability to campaign may depend on what sentence Merchan ends up serving, and when Trump will serve it.
“In the context of being found guilty and then being sentenced not to prison, I don’t think it will make a difference,” Police added. “There might be some minor issues. He might not be able to pick himself. But other than that, I don’t think it’s going to cause any problems.”
When determining Trump’s punishment, the judge could consider many violations of the joke order – which led Merchan to threaten him with jail time if the violation continues – and the lack of showing remorse or regard for the legal system. During the hearing, Trump called Merchan “conflicted” and “corrupt” and the case a “false”.
“In New York, the 78-year-old defendant, who is a first offender, committed a non-violent offense, and has a very good record – in some respects being a former president is distinguished. world, there is no possibility of a prison sentence,” said Kopi. “They can use probation, they can use fines. But there may be a view of many judges who must show that no one is above the law, and even the future president must have a sense of prison.”
Although Merchan ordered Trump to serve time behind bars, the sentence could be stayed until his appeal is over.
“In other cases, if you don’t have someone walking in the White House, it’s better to put them in confinement,” Kopi said. “You can always put special conditions on what you can do or put under house arrest, but I think until we get to the actual election, we should let Donald Trump run and campaign.”
The impact of that belief on Trump’s poll numbers and support
Trump has predicted that confidence in this trial could boost his poll numbers.
“Even if it’s wrong, I think it really doesn’t have any effect. It could affect the numbers, but we don’t want it. We want to have a fair verdict,” Trump told CBS Pittsburgh in an interview earlier this month.
Trump’s support among his Republican base has been remarkably resilient in the face of multiple criminal cases. In the months following his four indictments last year, Trump maintained a commanding lead in the Republican primary, securing the nomination despite the dozens of criminal charges he faces.
Many Trump supporters interviewed by CBS News since the trial began said the wrongful conviction won’t change the way they vote in November, citing the former president’s complaints as their own.
“Stormy Daniels has been seen and stuff. It’s kind of a coincidence,” said Michigan resident Lori Beyer at a rally in Freeland, Michigan, adding that she would vote for Trump regardless of the conviction. “I didn’t think it would affect me, as much as I wanted to.”
Whether the conviction changes the minds of voters disloyal to the former president remains to be seen. A new CBS News poll found that a majority of Americans believe that Trump is “definitely or probably” guilty of the charges he faces in New York. A majority of Democrats — 93% — believe Trump is wrong, while 78% of Republicans say he is not. Independents were split, with 53% believing they were wrong and 47% saying they were not.
Opinions on whether or not Trump is wrong have become deeply partisan, according to Kabir Khanna, deputy director of elections and data analysis for CBS News. Most people who believe Trump is guilty also think a jury will convict him, and vice versa.
Also, Khanna says that those who follow the trial closely are the most polarized.
“Together, these factors can reduce the impact of the verdict on already divided public opinion,” Khanna said. “Some voters may be surprised by the news, but I don’t expect a sea change.”
Other polls support the idea. An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released Thursday found that 67% of registered voters nationwide say Trump’s convictions won’t make a difference in how they vote. Among independents, only 11% said the wrong verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.
That conviction also gives the Biden campaign a potentially powerful new weapon in its arsenal: the ability to label Trump as a convicted felon. Mr. Biden has remained silent on Trump’s ongoing trial, but NBC News reported last week that he plans to be more aggressive about Trump’s legal problems after the trial ends, while acknowledging that Trump will be on the ballot regardless of how he does. legal case played out.
Trump has used the trial to boost his fundraising, and is likely to capitalize on the conviction. The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee saw donations surge after jury selection began, with the two entities bringing in $76 million in April. His campaign had about $50 million in cash at the start of May as he prepared to hit the campaign trail again after the trial.
The former president has repeatedly used developments in the trial to raise money, including when he was arrested for violating a gag order against him.
“I’ll get caught ONE MILLION TIMES before I let those dirty dogs catch you,” is one typical fundraising appeal.
Trump’s other criminal case
The New York case may be Trump’s only one four criminal prosecutions to reach a conclusion before voters cast their ballots in the fall, giving a guilty verdict added weight.
Two federal cases brought by special counsel Jack Smith remain in limbo.
In Washington, DC, Trump faces charges related to his actions to stay in power after the 2016 election. Trump has argued that he is immune from prosecution, and the Supreme Court is now considering his claim.
The high court heard arguments on the immunity dispute on April 26 and is expected to issue a decision on the matter before the end of the trial period, likely in June. If the case is allowed to move forward, it’s possible the district court could schedule a hearing before November. If the judge sides with Trump and finds him immune from prosecution, the charges will be dismissed.
In Florida, Trump faces federal charges for withholding classified documents after he left the White House. Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, has postponed the trial indefinitely. He ruled in early May that choosing a trial date would be “immoral and inconsistent with the court’s duty to fully and fairly consider” the many pending pre-trial motions. The move includes Trump’s attempt to dismiss the case, as well as issues related to classified information that could be revealed during the trial.
In a third case that remains outstanding, Trump faces state charges related to the 2020 election in Fulton County, Georgia. The trial on the matter is also on hold as Trump seeks to have District Attorney Fani Willis removed from the case. The Georgia Court of Appeals recently granted Trump’s appeal of a ruling that allowed him to stay, putting the trial on hold.
Two of Trump’s federal cases could be in the hands of voters if they are not resolved in November, a fact that increases his personal stake in the outcome. If he wins and returns to the White House in January 2025, Trump could order the Justice Department to drop the charges.
Trump has pleaded not guilty in all criminal cases against him.
