Economic woes from inflation appear to have pushed Latino voters toward Republicans, cutting the Democratic lead in half with a critical group of voters in the lead up to a tight presidential election, according to an NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey.
The survey of 1,000 Latino voters found the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, leading the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, by 54% to 40%. That’s less than the 36-point lead enjoyed by President Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Biden’s advantage is nearly half the 50-point lead Hillary Clinton held over Trump in 2016, reflecting a long-term trend that shows Latinos in the Democratic camp but in smaller numbers.
“There is an intensity about this issue that is quite exciting,” said Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, senior vice president at Hart Research, a Democratic pollster for the survey. the way people think about the economy and the economic future of the country.”
The survey was conducted from September 15 to September 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Harris’ 14-point lead is the narrowest margin for a Democratic candidate among Latino voters surveyed in at least the past four elections, going back to 2012. The survey also found a 54% to 42% preference for Democratic control of Congress among Latinos. the Democratic lead is the smallest since 2012. That shows a change that could go far beyond just the presidential race.
“The data in this poll is not a flash in the pan,” said Micah Roberts, a partner with Public Opinion Strategies, which polled Republicans for the survey. “This is a continuation of the changing political identity of one of the most important groups of voters in America.”
Harris has a strong lead among respondents when it comes to character issues: by two-to-one, surveyed Latino voters think he would do a better job addressing their needs; 48% gave Harris a positive favorability rating compared to 32% for Trump; and he leads Trump by about 20 points or more on the question of who has the right temperament to be president and who is more reliable, competent and effective.
But the survey showed inflation and the cost of living, along with jobs and the economy, as the top two issues for Latinos, mirroring surveys of the broader population. Trump leads Harris on both counts, 46% to 37% over Harris on who is better at handling inflation and 45% to 41% on handling the economy.
Harris has a 39-point advantage on who is best at treating immigrants humanely and protecting immigrant rights, a 32-point lead on the abortion issue and an even 5-point lead on crime. Harris’ dominance on the issue highlights the importance of the economy and inflation in explaining Trump’s gains among Latinos in this poll compared to 2020.
Harris’ lead over Trump is shrinking among younger voters aged 18-34, who favor the Democratic candidate by just 10 points compared to 44 points in 2020. Trump and Harris are tied among Latinos 47/47, a group Biden leads by 17 points . in polls leading up to the 2020 election. The Democratic advantage among Latino women is 26 points, but about half of Biden’s lead in 2020.
All of these groups gave the economy poor ratings, with Latino voters generally as poor on the economy as the rest of the country. Only 23% see the current economic situation as very good or good, while 77% rate the economy fair or poor, almost identical to the results for all voters in the CNBC All-America Economic Survey from August. This is a potential problem for Democrats because Latinos are already reliable Democratic voters and don’t seem like Democrats on economic issues. In the CNBC survey, Democrats rated the economy 42% very good or good, compared to 23% for Latinos in this poll. 65% of Latinos say their wages have fallen in line with inflation. While roughly the same as the rest of the population, it was 11 points higher than the NBC 2022 Latino survey. Younger Latino women and adults say they are affected by higher prices.
Among those who said it was going back, 48% said the biggest impact was on the cost of groceries, 34% on rent and mortgages and 10% highlighted rising healthcare costs.
While Latinos have different views on immigration, it is only considered the fourth most important area, behind inflation, jobs and even a threat to democracy. The survey found 62% of respondents believe immigration helps the country more than it hurts, with 35% the opposite. This is the smallest positive indication for immigration among Latinos since at least 2006.
Trump leads Harris 47-34 on the issue of who is better at securing the border and controlling immigration, according to the survey.
A modest 52% majority of Latino voters said it was more important to provide a path to citizenship for immigrants and prevent discrimination, compared with 47% who said it was more important to secure the border and prevent immigrants from entering illegally.
However, 91% support creating a path for undocumented spouses to obtain citizenship, and 87% support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants brought here as children.
Here is a demographic profile of Latino voters from the NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey:
- 52% said they primarily spoke English, while others said they only spoke Spanish or both.
- 56% trace their family heritage to Mexico; 16% for Puerto Rico; 11% for Spain; 5% for Cuba; 5% for the Dominican Republic.
- 49% identify as Democrat, 37% Republican, 13% independent.
- 32% say they are liberal; 37% moderate; 29% are conservative.
- 49% Catholic, 21% Protestant, 28% other/none.
