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Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats were successful at this week’s convention in Chicago. At every point, they try to deny the attack of the enemy. The Harris-Walz team argued repeatedly, and especially effectively, I think, in the vice president’s night speech, that they are for national unity, against ideology, for the middle class, for women and most importantly for the United States. .
Even the casual observer could not tell that there was very little in Vice President Harris’s speech that added to the agenda for the United States or even to the policy prescription. The strategists behind the Harris-Walz ticket knew that, on issues, they could lose to former President Donald Trump. But in terms of life stories, aspirations and symbolism, more Democrats will turn what could be a possible defeat with Joe Biden at the top of the ticket into a potential victory with Kamala Harris.
The Democratic Convention has been characterized this week as one of good vibes and political joy and Harris himself could rise to the occasion Thursday night. He gives voters, of all parties and ideologies, a sense that he stands with he and for he, in contrast to the old, out-of-touch Donald Trump who, as he tells, stands specifically and especially with billionaires.
KAMALA HARRIS OFFICIALLY RECEIVED THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION AT THE DNC
The vice president and his successor are strong. He strives to strike a patriotic tone and assure voters in strong terms that he will stand with our allies in Europe and Ukraine (and perhaps not Israel). Harris and his supporters make it clear that while they are standing and with the middle class, most importantly, their goal is to emphasize and widen the gender gap by making this convention mostly for women.
It seems clear that the Harris-Walz ticket will get a modest bump from the very well-produced and executed Democratic convention in Chicago. The vice president will likely enter the fall campaign with a narrow but clear lead over former President Trump in the state and most in a majority of swing states.
The election is ultimately a referendum on the incumbent. We will see, in the September 10 debate between the vice president and the former president, whether Harris can escape the stigmatization through the perceived failure of the current president.
But make no mistake, it would be a mistake to believe that the overall direction of this race has changed or changed with the four-day spectacle that the Democrats can produce. For many people raised by the event, few saw or heard anything that would distinguish the Democratic ticket on the issues that American voters care about most: inflation, the cost of living, immigration and crime. Not enough material was offered to make a significant contrast with former President Trump.
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The convention began with Joe Biden, the incumbent president, having an approval rating at or below 40 percent. Despite a successful convention, Biden’s approval rating almost certainly hasn’t plateaued this week. I say that because the last election is a referendum on the incumbent. We will see, in the September 10 debate between the vice president and the former president, whether Harris can escape the stigmatization through the perceived failure of the current president.
Despite what the national media may say today, and after the inevitable post-convention bump in political support the Democratic ticket will receive, this election will remain close. Close to the previous presidential elections in 2016 and 2020.
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We won’t have a clear understanding of the direction of the 2024 presidential campaign until the polls come in after the Sept. 10 Harris-Trump debate. But even then, remember that Trump always did better in the election than in the polls before the election. What many liberal media can describe as the inevitability of Harris-Walz may be, and more likely, repeat of the last two national elections. In other words, after the convention, victory for the Democrats is not guaranteed. However, this election will be very close.
The main question facing Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans today is whether they can successfully recalibrate their campaign to be as effective in criticizing Vice President Harris as the current president.
The last presidential election has been decided by fewer than 100,000 votes. The same may happen in 2024, even if the national media embraces the Harris-Walz ticket and the possibility of the presidential election, in their minds, the current vice president.
Both parties have had successful conventions this summer. This week in Chicago, Harris managed to publicly address most, if not all, of his negatives: far left, polarizing, no record, soft on immigration and crime. It is clear that he will continue in this vein for the rest of the campaign.
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The main question facing Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans today is whether they can successfully recalibrate their campaign to be as effective in criticizing Vice President Harris as the current president. These are the unanswered questions as we head into the traditional start of the presidential election campaign on Labor Day.
Bottom line: The politics of happiness is not necessarily the politics of victory.
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