In the midst of this year’s presidential election, GOP pollster Mitchell Brown told Fox Business’ Stuart Varney on Thursday that he predicts that neither former President Donald Trump nor Vice President Kamala Harris will win all three key battleground states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. -an impossible scenario. That hasn’t happened since the 1988 election.
On Varney & Co. there, Varney asked Brown if the style line is in favor of Trump, to which Brown responded, “Yes, the style line is great. I am no longer worried anywhere in South-North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada-good. going to go.”
Turning to the Rust Belt region and the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the so-called “Blue Wall,” Brown said, “If you look at 2016, Trump won all three states, obviously Biden won them all. Those three swing states… in 2020.”
The winners of these states often win the presidency, with the exception of Democratic candidate Al Gore, who secured all three but lost the 2000 presidential election to President George W. Bush.
“What I’m seeing here is that no candidate has won all three, which means Trump only took one—he’s already won the election,” Brown said on Thursday.
Predictions that the states could be split between the two major party candidates have not happened since the 1988 election between Vice President George HW Bush and Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis when Bush won Michigan and Pennsylvania and Dukakis took Wisconsin.
“I still believe that Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the two most likely to fall for Trump, but if the turnout is at its maximum and we see a repeat, it will be all three for Trump and zero for Kamala,” the GOP pollster added.
Newsweek Harris’ and Trump’s campaigns have been reached for comment via email on Friday.
Pennsylvania is a key battleground state in this year’s election, with Trump and Harris competing for the crucial Electoral College vote. 19 electoral votes in the Keystone State—more than any other swing state—can determine the outcome of an election.
Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, while President Joe Biden returned in 2020. The race in the state is expected to decide a few thousand votes, and the two main party candidates have repeatedly campaigned there.
Most Pennsylvania polls show a narrow margin between the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees, with the lead fluctuating within the margin of error, putting the state on edge.
Harris’ clearest path to victory next month is winning in three “Blue Wall” battleground states, barring shock results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia while flipping Pennsylvania.
In Wisconsin, aggregate polls are deadlocked, with The Hill showing Trump with a 0.4 percent lead, 48.5 to Harris’ 48.1 percent, while RealClear Polling shows a tighter race, with Trump ahead by 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, Nate Silver Silver Bulletin found Harris up 0.5 percent in the state and The New York Times found Harris up 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent.
Additionally, Michigan shows a tight race with The Hill aggregate showing Trump with a 0.1 percentage point lead, RealClear Polling with a slightly higher edge for Trump at 0.2 percent, while the Silver Bulletin shows a 0.7 percentage point lead for Harris, the same as The Times found Harris up 1 percentage point.
National aggregate polls show Harris narrowly leading Trump, but new polls show the gap has widened. The Times‘ aggregate shows Harris up 49 percent to Trump 48 percent, while The Hill shows a slightly tighter lead for Harris 0.9 percent, 48.7 percent to Trump 47.8 percent. The RealClear poll found Harris by just 0.2 percentage points, 48.7 percent to Trump’s 48.5 percent.
National and aggregate polls measure voter sentiment, but individual states and Electoral College elections ultimately decide the presidential election. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes, which does not necessarily align with the national popular vote.
State-specific victories are critical to securing electoral votes, as seen in the 2016 election when Democrat Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the presidency to Trump after failing to reach 270 Electoral College votes.
While pollster Nate Silver’s national aggregate poll shows Harris ahead by 1.6 percentage points, the current forecast gives Trump a 52.7 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 47 percent. Pollsters, statisticians and political analysts generally consider the race a toss-up.