Austria’s far-right Freedom Party is predicted to win a majority in federal elections for the first time, in what would be a bitter defeat for the country’s two historic political groups that are set to announce complex coalition talks.
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Published on 29 Sep 2024 • 3 minutes of reading
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(Bloomberg) — Austria’s far-right Freedom Party is forecast to win a majority in federal elections for the first time, in what would be a bitter defeat for the country’s two historic political groups that are set to announce complex coalition talks. .
The populist party has topped public opinion polls for nearly two years, with its leader, Herbert Kickl, campaigning on a promise to deport asylum seekers and stop supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression as the “people’s chancellor.”
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“We are fighting to free ourselves from the system,” Kickl told supporters at a rally outside Vienna on Friday. “We want to build a new chapter in Austrian history, where the people are the protagonists.”
Sunday’s vote comes at a difficult time for Austria, which is set for a second year of economic contraction and is only now recovering from high inflation that often outstrips its eurozone peers.
But Kickl, 55, could also fill the political void after the 2021 ouster of conservative wunderkind Sebastian Kurz over corruption charges. Kurz’s successor as chancellor – Karl Nehammer, from the People’s Party – has failed to replicate his charismatic style, although handling the recent floods has also provided a final boost to his standing.
Meanwhile, the leader of the Social Democrats – small-town mayor Andreas Babler – only took office in 2023 after an internal power struggle, and failed to capture the hearts and minds of the wider public.
Opinion polls show support for each of the three main parties remains roughly the same, although the Freedom Party, which leads, says it cannot be denied.
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Austrian state broadcaster ORF is scheduled to launch preliminary projections based on partial results shortly after the last polling stations close at 5pm CET. Early results are due before midnight.
Coalition Building
The current coalition of the People’s Party and the Greens will not have enough votes to continue governing, and the two groups show limited appetite.
As the leader of the largest party after the vote, Kickl will usually be asked to start negotiations to find a partner to open a government, but his ambition to lead Austria will face the reality of coalition arithmetic. The fact that he was considered a toxic presence by most competitors didn’t help.
The People’s Party has been part of every government coalition since 1987, and Nehammer has vowed not to form a government with Kickl. However, he did not break his alliance with the Freedom Party itself; such pairs at the provincial and municipal level of Austria often.
A centrist government needs the support of the People’s Party, the Social Democrats and a smaller third group – the liberal NEOS or the Greens. Finding common ground for a coalition program will be a difficult task, even in a country used to consensual rule between two historical parties. However, the desire to keep the Freedom Party out of government may have affected the alliance.
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Austria’s coalition negotiations usually take months, not weeks, so talks could last until next year. The team with Nehammer will continue to rule in the meantime.
Economic Facts
Whoever forms the next government will face a long list of policy challenges.
Although it is one of the richest countries in Europe based on gross domestic product per capita, the competitiveness of Austria’s industrial base is at risk due to aggressive wage increases and the government’s efforts to keep pace with rapid inflation. The end of Russian gas deliveries in December eliminated cheaper energy sources, and the transition to alternative sources is fraught with risk.
Acute labor shortages in key sectors, such as tourism and health care. Budget consolidation measures are also needed to meet the EU deficit target of 3% of economic output.
“Austria urgently needs structural reforms to stimulate the economy and reduce the public deficit,” said Monika Koeppl-Turyna, an economist at the Austrian research institute ECO in Vienna. “The prolonged uncertainty about the formation of a coalition will make it more difficult.”
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