This week on 60 Minutes, correspondent Scott Pelley examines the 2024 election, a contest that saw former President Donald Trump sweep all seven battleground states and become the first Republican president in 20 years to win the popular vote. County by county, state by state, voters are moving to the right, even in demographic and geographic strongholds that count as Democrats.
To understand why the widespread red shift, 60 Minutes spoke with Anthony Salvanto, CBS News’ executive director of polls and surveys. According to Salvanto, there are three main factors that support voters against President-elect Donald Trump this election.
Economic role
One of the most important factors in this year’s election is the economy, specifically inflation. In all the polls before the election, Salvanto said, voters marked the issue as the top issue, and Trump certainly had an advantage with those who said the economy was their top concern.
Salvanto said that, while he highlighted features that indicate economic strength, including steady GDP growth and a low unemployment rate, voters told him his personal experience made him feel otherwise.
“They saw that there was inflation, higher prices at the grocery store and, for a long time, at the gas pump,” Salvanto said.
For Roz Werkheiser, inflation is as contagious as the pandemic that caused it. The manager of a restaurant in eastern Northampton County in Pennsylvania, Werkeiser said the rising cost of food directly affects customers. He said he voted for Trump in the hope that high-price fever would break under his administration.
“The last four years were terrible. They were terrible,” Werkheiser said. “Credit card interest rates go up, electric bills go up, gas goes up. TV/Cable goes up. I know all my bills go up.”
Werkheiser said he expects Trump to lower credit card interest rates and get rid of taxes on credit card tips.
“Maybe that will help a little,” he said. “Maybe they can do it. I hope they can.”
MAGA’s solid foundation
The hope that led many people to look past Trump’s history – including two impeachments, January 6 Capitol riots, and legal challenges, among them 34 criminal convictions. As these elements may erode the support of other politicians, Salvanto said the second factor to consider in Trump’s victory is the MAGA base that has always supported him.
According to Salvanto, only half of the self-identified Republicans consider themselves members of the MAGA movement.
“This is a core part of the base that absorbs and repeats and believes in the narrative that this is a political demand,” Salvanto said.
An even higher number — nearly two-thirds of Republicans — consistently say they think the 2020 election is rigged, even though those claims have been thoroughly investigated and litigated and found to be without merit.
“And to finish the narrative where (Trump) has never had an erosion of that base,” Salvanto said.
An unaffiliated Democrat
For Rep. Susan Wild, Democrats have many lessons to learn from this year’s election.
Wild, a Democrat himself, represents Pennsylvania’s Northampton County in Congress. At least, they will until January; he lost his bid for re-election last Tuesday.
He told 60 Minutes that he thinks his party is still the better choice for the working class — but the Democrats can’t communicate effectively.
“We’re caught up in a high-profile social issue,” Wild said. “And I’m sure someone watching this is thinking, ‘High social issue? Women’s reproductive rights aren’t just high social issues.’ I mean, if you’re struggling to pay the rent or provide for your kids, you don’t have the privilege of thinking about LGBTQ rights unless you have someone in your family who is affected. You don’t have the luxury of thinking about reproductive rights.”
Wild’s story illustrates a third factor that Salvanto says contributed to Trump’s win: the impression that Democrats are out of touch and unable to move voters on the issues the party cares about.
She noted that Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is trying to make abortion rights a priority and rally women’s support around her. But while abortion is a strong factor for Democrats, Salvanto said, the level of support has not increased over time.
However, in the 10 states where voters can vote on abortion rights this year, Harris has often received fewer votes than the ballot measure.
“There are a lot of Republicans who voted for Donald Trump and the reproductive rights side of the amendment,” Salvanto said.
Another aspect of the Democratic disconnect is over cultural and social issues. Salvanto said the poll found a split in the electorate, with some voters feeling that efforts to promote gender and racial equality in the US have gone too far. People who feel that way voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump, Salvanto said.
Regardless of why voters decide to support President-elect Trump, over the next four years, it will be their choices that will show the impact of this year’s red shift. For restaurant manager Roz Werkheiser, it’s important that Trump makes promises that bring voters back to the White House.
“I think they’re going to try to keep most of it, yeah. I really do,” he said. “I really am.”
The video above was produced by Brit McCandless Farmer and edited by Scott Rosann.
