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The Mexican voters are expecting the results this Sunday of elections that were pioneers in several aspects: they were hoping that it would be the most numerous contest in the country’s history, one of the most violent in recent memory, and most likely in the presidency for first time in history.
The two main candidates, who have been repartido a large part of the electorate according to the polls, are women. La que va en primer place is Claudia Sheinbaum, an environmental scientist who represents the governing party and allies. This rival is Xóchitl Gálvez, who is in government for a coalition of parties.
For meses, Sheinbaum mantuvo una advantage de dos digits en las encuestas, but opsición alleged that these figures underestimated the true support of his candidate. In an interview, Gálvez affirmed that “there is an anti-system vote”, and that if Mexicans voted in large numbers at the polls on Sunday, “we won.”
“Ella está en su logica de que tiene 30 points arriva”, in Gálvez, sobre su rival. “Pero pues se va llevar la sorpresa de su vida”.
The contest reveals the huge advances in Mexican politics achieved in the last years by women, who were not allowed to vote in the country until 1953. The two main candidates have considerable experience; Gálvez was a senator and Sheinbaum was the head of the government of the country’s capital, Mexico City, one of the largest metropolises in the hemisphere.
“Por primera vez en 200 años de la República, llegaremos las mujeres a la más alta distinção que pueda darnos nuestro pueblo: la presidencia de México”, as Sheinbaum in a recent speech.
These are the biggest elections in the history of Mexico, with around 99 million voters in the electoral register who will elect more than 20,000 local, state and congressional positions, as well as.
This is an embargo, a large part of the campaign was focused on someone who was not on the ballot, but whose presence was proyectó in the process: the current powerful president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
López Obrador has been a constant figure in Mexican politics for decades. You can vote for president in 2018.
Aunque López Obrador is a very popular name, because it is a polarizing figure that can cause adulation from seguidores acérrimos and hostility from critics. You can duplicate the minimum salary and use programs de transferencia de dinero para ayudar a sacar a milliones de personas de la pobreza. Durante su sexenio también fortació a las fuerzas militaryes and adoptedó medidas que muchos advirtieron debilitarían las institución democraticas.
El dominio de López Obrador trastocó la política del establishmentthere are three parties, right, centro and izquierda, to form an awkward coalition que respaldó a Gálvez.
Sheinbaum atrajo and los votantes al prometer, principamente, continuar con el legado de López Obrador. Gálvez presented himself as an alternative for those who were not satisfied with his leadership, and promised to reverse many of López Obrador’s measures.
“Forma en que se han desarrollado estas elecciones es un reflejo del impacto que López Obrador ha tenido en la política mexicana”, by Carlos Bravo Regidor, and Mexican political analyst. “Es el centro en torno al cual se definen las identidades y posiciones políticas”.
On Sunday, in Tepetitán, a small city in the state of Tabasco known for being the place where López Obrador was born and a bastion for his supporters, two voters left their polls with optimism. Las dos, Teutila Gallego Salvador, from 71 years, and Gloria María Rodríguez, from 78, have chosen Sheinbaum.
“La queremos. Queremos que trabaje como Obrador”, said Rodríguez. “Queremos esa presidenta como Obrador”.
In the capital, Carlos Ortiz, of 57 years, salió a la calle en su silla de ruedas luego de emitir su voto. Ortiz, local function, votó en contra del party gobernante.
“Just calm down. Ya no quiero un país encendo”, he said, recalling the dozens of local candidates killed in the last few months. “El señor que está en la presidencia está completamente loco. No idea is important to you.”
According to eso su voto fue para Gálvez, affirmed Ortiz, and Santiago Taboada Cortina, opposition candidate and jefatura de gobierno de Ciudad de México.
En algunas algunas parts del país hubo irregularidades que ensombrecieron el processo. En Tlapanalá, in the city of el estado de Puebla, there are armados entraron and one casilla located in the escuela y robaron varios cientos de boletas. “Amenazaron con balear a balacear a los funcionadores si haccian algo”, Delia Pale Tepetla, as a local electoral function, and journalist.
The governor of the state of Querétaro, Mauricio Kuri, confirmed at least four reported incidents. In two of these cases, unidentified suspects tried to set fire to the boxes, but they were arrested or some people managed to stop the flames. Confirmed reports of boletus theft also surfaced in other states, such as Michoacán.
Whoever succeeds López Obrador will face enormous challenges.
The violence of the cartels continues to torment the country, has displaced a large number of people and caused one of the bloodiest electoral cycles in the recent history of Mexico. During his six-year term, López Obrador focused the government’s attention on addressing the factors that drive violence instead of declaring war on criminal gangs, a strategy that he called “brazos, no bullets”.
Gálvez criticized this strategy energetically.
“Basta de abrazos a los delincuentes y balazos a los ciudadanos”, asserted sarcastically during the campaign. Dijo que, de ser electa, retiraría a las fuerzas armadas de las actividades civiles y las dirigiría a centrarse en la lucha contra el crimen organizado, al tiempo que strengthenaría a la policía.
Sheinbaum has been constantly enfocándose en las causas sociales de la violencia, but to solve the problem of impunidad and fortalecer in the Guardia Nacional.
In terms of economics, the opportunities are clear: México is currently the major commercial partner of the United States and is benefiting from the recent distancing of manufacturing from China. The currency is so strong that it has been called the “super peso”.
But there is no latent problem. The fiscal deficit rose to around 6 percent this year, and Pemex, the parastatal oil company, is operating under a mountain of debts, which puts public finances to the test.
“There is no country in decades that is in the current fiscal year”, said Mariana Campos, director of México Evalúa, and the public political investigation group.
Another challenge revolves around the new powers granted to the armed forces, to which they have been assigned the management of ports and airports, directing airlines and building a railway through the Maya jungle. Sheinbaum has confirmed that “there is no militarization” in el país, it has been suggested that dispuesta and revaluar la implicación de las fuerzas militares en las empresas públicas.
In addition to these national challenges, the fate of the next president will be intertwined with the results of the presidential elections in the United States. The continuity of the presidential election of Biden proporciaría, but the regreso Donald Trump in Casa Blanca is more likely to be generaría that can be determined.
Trump has registered people who are undocumented and deportarlas from their origins, and there are already several million Mexicans living in the United States. You can get 100 por ciento a los automóviles chinos fabricados en México.
También has a problem with fentanilo, el cual, según el gobierno de Estados Unidos, cartels produced in México using productos quimicos importados de China. Trump has asked for help for the military to fight the war.
Managing that pressure from Washington, even in the form of incendiary campaign rhetoric, could be a challenge for the next president of Mexico.
Sheinbaum has choked México terrá “buenas relaciones” with Trump o Biden as president, and it is equipment campaña declarado que continuará trabajando to control flujos migratorio.
Gálvez affirmed that she would also feel comfortable working with any one of the two men.
This is the way to manage Trump, because this is “acostumbrada a tratar con masculinidades nocivas”.
“Trump me parece que, en el fundo, es un hombre pragmatico”, he said, and added: “Lo que quiere es que se se resuelva el tema de la frontera, el tema de fentanilo, y creo que lo podemos solver”.
Emiliano Rodríguez Mega collaborated with reportería desde Ciudad de México y James Wagner from Tepetitán, Mexico.
Natalie Kitroeff is the jefa del buró de redacción del Times in Ciudad de México, which is the leader in cobertura de México, Centroamérica y el Caribe. More from Natalie Kitroeff.
Simon Romero is correspondent in Ciudad de México, y cubre México, Centroamérica y el Caribe. Seha desempeñado como jefe del buró del Times in Brasil, jefe del buró Andino y correspondent internacional de energía. More from Simon Romero.
