After making the playoffs six times in 10 seasons from 2008 to 2017, the Atlanta Falcons posted a losing record in each of the past six seasons.
Their talented young offensive weapons have made the Falcons a formidable pick in the NFC South to win the past two years.
But QBs Marcus Mariota (5-8 as a starter in 2022) and Desmond Ridder (8-9 in 17 starts two years ago) can’t win more than seven games in 2022 or 2023.
In fact, including Matt Ryan’s last four seasons in Atlanta (2018-2021), the franchise has won exactly seven games in all but one of the last six years. After finishing 7-10 three times in a row in 2023, the Falcons responded with changes at head coach and quarterback.
Oddsmakers see Atlanta as the best team in the NFC South after the move.
Raheem Morris was named the Falcons’ head coach in January after spending the last three seasons as the Rams’ defensive coordinator, and 36-year-old Kirk Cousins ​​chose Atlanta in free agency.
There are questions about how Cousins ​​will fare in his 13th season in the NFL as he returns from a torn Achilles, but if healthy, Atlanta could contend in the NFC.
Atlanta Falcons 2024 Futures Odds
| FanDuel | DraftKings | bet365 | Caesars | |
| Super Bowl odds | +2600 | +3000 | +2500 | +2800 |
| NFC Champion odds | +1100 | +1300 | +1200 | +1200 |
| NFC South obstacle | -145 | -130 | -130 | -130 |
| Odds of making the playoffs: yes | -194 | -215 | -210 | -200 |
| Odds of making the playoffs: no | +154 | +170 | +165 | +160 |
| Total win over: 9.5 | -142 | -135 | -140 | -140 |
| Total win at: 9.5 | +116 | +115 | +110 | +120 |
The list of teams that oddsmakers like more than the Falcons to win the NFC is short.
Only the 49ers, lions, eagles, Packers and Cowboys enter 2024 with a shorter odds to represent this conference in Super Bowl 59. The Falcons are also heavily favored in the NFC South over Tampa Bay, which won that division each of the last three years.
It makes sense after the Falcons pulled off the biggest upgrade at quarterback of any team in the NFL this offseason* (except for Caleb Williams who somehow made an even bigger impact than anticipated in Chicago.)
But it’s fair to question whether oddsmakers are overrating the Falcons — and/or underestimating the Buccaneers in the NFC South — given that the team is just 19th in opponent-adjusted DVOA in 2022 and No. 28 in 2023.
* Cousins’ return to form is not guaranteed, but to avoid more trouble than we already have, this is the last time we’ll attach a “if he’s healthy” clause to Cousins’ potential impact this season.
Atlanta Falcons 2024 Betting Outlook
Does Kirk Cousins ​​make the Falcons unstoppable?
- PFF OL Unit Rankings: No. 6
- PFF Receiver Unit Rankings (WRs/TEs): No. 13
- PFF RB Unit Rankings: No. 5
The offensive performance by Atlanta in 2023 is interesting.
The Falcons have one of the best rookies in the league. Former Texas Longhorn RB Bijan Robinson finished fifth in the voting for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year after a big year as a runner and receiver.
In addition, second-year WR Drake London continues to look like a future star (over 13 yards per catch on 69 receptions) despite poor QB play by Ridder, and TE Kyle Pitts hauled in 53 catches while splitting snaps with Jonnu Smith.
But despite all the individual production, the Falcons average only 18.9 points per game (26th-best in the NFL), and DVOA ranks this offense as the 24th-best in the league.
This year, the offensive line – which returned all five starters from a year ago – is quite stout, and Cousins ​​is a pretty good quarterback, which can be as simple as, “Robinson + London + Pitts + Cousins ​​= and elite offense. “
It’s true that this O-line features three former first-round picks, who PFF ranks as one of the best in the league, as advertised.
But while the potential for this offense is undeniable, it will be interesting to see if everything comes together as quickly and seamlessly as expected.
Atlanta, after all, is adjusting to a new coaching staff and a proven quarterback but also A) coming off an Achilles tear just 10 months ago and B) acclimating to a new offense after six seasons in Minnesota.
The late summer addition bolstered Atlanta’s defense
- PFF DL Unit Ranking: No. 28
- PFF Linebacker Rankings: No. 24
- PFF Secondary Unit Rankings: No. 22
*PFF unit rankings based on how the Atlanta D looked before acquiring safety Justin Simmons and LB Matthew Judon during practice.
Atlanta’s defense is the NFL’s second-worst in 2022, according to DVOA, and only improved (to No. 24) a year ago. But thanks to the hiring of defensive-minded Morris as head coach and two key personnel moves in August, the Falcons D should be better this season.
Before Atlanta traded with New England for four-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Matthew Judon in mid-August, the team’s front seven looked like a major weakness.
The Falcons are only facing their 42nd QB in 2023, and they lost their two most productive pass-rushers from a year ago, Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree, this offseason. So the deal for Judon, who went to four straight Pro Bowls from 2018-22, is huge for this team, especially after third-round rookie EDGE Bralen Trice suffered a season-ending knee injury earlier this preseason.
The signing of Simmons, a second-team All-Pro safety each of the last three seasons, looks like a case of strength getting stronger. Even without Simmons, the Falcons boast two studs in the secondary in safety Jessie Bates III and cornerback AJ Terrell. With Simmons in the mix, the Falcons look rock-solid in the defensive backfield.
The addition of Judon adds to the front seven, but the Falcons still need more players up front to level up for NFC playoff contention.
Overall, however, Atlanta’s defense has the look of a unit that will be able to do the most important thing in the NFL in 2024, which is stop the pass.
Atlanta Falcons 2024 Best Bets
- Falcons to win over: 9.5 (best odds: -135 at DraftKings)
- Falcons to win NFC (best odds: +1300 at DraftKings)
Whether you’re bullish on Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in the NFC South or not, the Falcons just don’t offer a ton of value to win this division at minus odds.
Given how high the ceiling is for this team — especially if Cousins ​​plays the way he did before he tore his Achilles last October — the Falcons’ more dire future includes them hitting a 9.5 win total and/or making it. run in the NFC.
Obviously, Swara 9.5 Menang will be a safe play.
As for Atlanta winning the NFC at +1300, yes, that’s a massive swing.
But it’s a flier worth considering in a conference where the top QBs (Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott) are beatable – or at least less beatable in the playoffs than the likes of Patrick Mahomes. , Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson.
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