The National People’s Power (NPP), led by Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, has swept Sri Lanka’s parliamentary polls with a stunning majority.
The success of the NPP, built on the victory of Mr. Dissanayake in September 2024 (presidential election), can be achieved by reading weak sentiments, patient planning and executing a smart electoral strategy. There is another side to this story: Sri Lanka is the oldest electoral democracy in Asia, with universal suffrage dating back to 1931, and its citizens, in an amazing political swing, not only gave the new government an enormous mandate but also clearly rejected it. that politics. status quo.
The election has, more or less, purged the 225-member Parliament, purged the arrogant old guard. While the NPP won 159 seats (61.6% of the vote), the main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) was reduced to 40 seats (17.7% of the vote). The parties of former President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksas have been crushed – five (4.5% of votes) and three seats (3.1%). The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) in the north and east, which claims to be the main Tamil vote, was reduced to eight seats (2.3% of the vote), with similar electoral bleeding in the mountainous state to candidates competing from established areas. and national parties. Importantly, three women from the hill country’s Tamil community have been elected. The new parliament will look drastically different from the pompous old house.
Sri Lanka’s worst economic crisis since Independence has led to unimaginable political changes. Like Humpty Dumpty, the old political order has fallen apart so badly that it cannot be put back together. Indeed, political parties have, for decades, only served the interests of the elite class in Colombo, the geopolitical stakes of powerful global actors, and the far-reaching nationalist agenda of the Tamil diaspora. The historic electoral shift radically changed the political terrain. It cannot be business as usual. Either the NPP must meet the expectations of the masses, or risk being displaced by the polarization of right-wing forces.
historical change
This historic election is comparable to that of 1977 during the decade-long global economic downturn. The right-wing UNP government of JR Jayewardene came to power with a five-sixth majority in Parliament. JR Jayewardene, who became the Minister of Finance at Independence in 1948, has spent almost thirty years to change the political and economic history of the country with a new Constitution, a presidential system and a liberal economy.
In addition, Mr. Dissanayake and the JVP have spent thirty years since taking the parliamentary route, after being ousted during the second brutal uprising, until they finally gained state power. The economic depression and the mass struggle of the people for system change in the past three years provided the perfect storm for the rise. Will he put an end to majority rule and finally eliminate the authoritarian executive presidency? Will they rebuild an inclusive economy, and depart from the neoliberal project of extreme inequality?
Tamil nationalist split
The political wave towards the NPP has started before the presidential election, and a parliamentary majority is expected. The more surprising result, however, was the unimaginable change in the northern Tamil electorate.
The NPP has become the first national party to win two electoral districts in the Northern Province, historically in the strong grip of Tamil nationalist politics. This great accident happened in the midst of the splintering of the Tamil nationalist party. The most recent factor was the projection of a “Tamil Common Candidate” in the last presidential election to avoid national politics, supposedly to show Tamil unity and gain support from international actors. The initiative failed miserably, as only a fraction voted. It is more anger from his own supporters, because the “unity” crumbled shortly after with the announcement of parliamentary elections. The self-serving politics behind Tamil nationalism is revealed by the party’s record of winning only twelve seats in the north.
In fact, the fall of Tamil nationalist politics is long overdue. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam has destroyed the Tamil political leadership, including by killing many Tamil parliamentarians, and is just a shell of Tamil politics funded by the diaspora. These political parties are unable to mobilize people on the ground, and claim to send Tamil nationalist aspirations through international pressure, in forums such as the UN Human Rights Council and lobbying in the capital, especially New Delhi. He has consistently failed to recognize the plight of those who have suffered – disrupted livelihoods, poverty and social disintegration with no future for the youth who have ravaged the war zones for half a decade.
The victory of the NPP is a reckoning that the people of the north share many of the challenges they face in the rest of the country. Tamil political elites claim that remittances from the diaspora have ensured that the warring people are not affected by the economic crisis.
The reality is that a small part of the middle class with one foot in the diaspora receives these remittances, while most rural communities struggle with unemployment, hunger and school dropouts. The NPP now has a huge responsibility to demonstrate that Colombo will finally start to address the long term problems and grievances of the ethnic minorities.
Space for change
The NPP has now been given an extraordinary mandate to deal with an unprecedented crisis. During his tenure, he made many promises, including providing relief to the people, eliminating corruption, eliminating the executive presidency, and repealing the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). It now has the legislative power to create a new Constitution, as a two-thirds majority in parliament is necessary for major amendments. The new government has to tackle a number of issues, from dealing with the economic crisis to political reconciliation after a tragic civil war.
The economic challenges are dire. And while the domestic challenges are clear, the turbulent world order could lead to new economic shocks. The NPP leadership would do well to learn a lesson from their leftist predecessors. A strong United Front government in the 1970s was ousted in subsequent elections by the onslaught of a global economic downturn and capital attacks by the West that condemned the country for embracing the Non-Aligned Movement.
Sri Lanka is also now in uncharted waters due to external debt for the first time in its history. A straight jacket from the International Monetary Fund program with severe austerity measures and debt restructuring that privileged powerful creditors, especially bondholders, allowed little wiggle room. Bureaucracies entrenched in pro-liberalization state structures can hinder progress. The business elite in Colombo is aligned to the West as they are naked extracted working people and will be looking for every opportunity to undercut the new government.
Above all, global powers, whether India, China or the United States, from seizing Sri Lanka’s strategic assets like vultures, may torpedo this center-left regime at the first opportunity to move the country into the region. own geopolitical interests. The island nation and its people have experienced a lot of turmoil in the past decade, and should be given the space to find their own democratic way out of the crisis.
Today, this great power does not need to support the reconstruction of the country. If they can stop the cynical tutelage and hegemonic maneuvers, and instead focus on the democratization of the country itself, that alone will allow Sri Lanka to move forward.
Ahilan Kadirgamar is a political economist and Senior Lecturer, University of Jaffna, Sri Lanka
Published – November 21, 2024 12:16 IST
