Former President Donald Trump sits in Manhattan Criminal Court in New York on May 20, 2024. A jury found Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts on Thursday.
Dave Sanders/The New York Times via AP, Pool
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Dave Sanders/The New York Times via AP, Pool
For the first time in American history, a former president has been found guilty of a crime.
A jury of his peers in New York unanimously found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records to influence the 2016 presidential election.
Amazingly, this is happening in an election year that says the former president will step down again, and it will certainly have political consequences.
“The real verdict will be November 5 by the people,” Trump said outside the New York courtroom after the verdict.
“There is still one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box,” Michael Tyler, a spokesman for the Biden campaign, said in a statement.
Well, they agree on one thing.
So what are the political ramifications of all this? Let’s dive in with these takeaways from an important day in American history:
1. Donald Trump will still be the Republican nominee.
Technically, the Republican Party’s nominating convention hasn’t happened yet, so it’s possible, in theorychoose another candidate.
But that didn’t happen. Republicans rallied behind Trump, from the House speaker to a cadre of Trump allies auditioning to be vice presidential candidates.
Trump has full control of the Republican National Committee. He has installed loyalists in the state party throughout the country, and because of that, it is in a strong position with the Republican Party from in 2016 when he again defeated the coup attempt of the convention of Texas Senator Ted Cruz and his allies.
This is Trump’s party. stop. He will be nominated by the party. This will happen, incredibly, just days after he was scheduled to be sentenced in this case (July 11).
And he will contest the elections this November.
Also, to be clear: Trump will not go to jail, legal experts believe, because he has no prior criminal record. This crime is punishable by anything from probation to house arrest, and up to four years in prison.
It is also not clear whether Trump will lose his voting rights in Florida, even if he is criminal.
In addition, Trump will be comparing, so there are real consequences, if the verdict is passed, it may not come for months.
2. Yes, Trump’s base may stick with him, but that’s not the point anymore.
Trump can raise money during the impeachment primary, and he’s only gotten stronger during that time — with Republicans.
Now the real test comes, and with the general election audience. There are several main questions:
- Does this anger resonate with persuaded voters in key swing states?
- Does this do anything to rally support for Biden with voters who have been struggling, like younger voters, black and Latino voters? They have been lukewarm to Biden, in part, because of his affordability, housing costs and his age, but do they want to vote for a “convicted felon” or will they sit or support a third-party candidate?
- Especially important in a year that is expected to have a lower turnout than the last four years, whether this verdict will rally or reduce the number of voters among some Potential rank-and-file Trump voters, especially white voters without college degrees? They are a core part of Trump’s base, but they are a group whose participation rate has been lower than others over the years. Republicans will say absolutely not, that this will only galvanize his language.
The latest NPR / PBS NewsHour / Marist poll shows most voters won’t be bothered. This suggests that some, including younger voters, may have been pushed to the margins, but this could be a reset moment in the campaign.
This is a historic moment in American history. Many Americans will soon learn of these beliefs. And here it is: The last thing Trump wants is “Trump” and “indicted felon” in the same headline. And barring an appeal before the election, that’s what will be associated with him when voters weigh their options.
3. The ball is in Biden’s court to see if he can use this politically.
The president has been very cautious about talking about Trump’s legal problems. With Trump continuing to dominate the news with wall-to-wall coverage of the trial, things have been tough for the Biden campaign.
It is significant that Biden, until the verdict, had never defeated Trump on a legal issue. He is the president, and he does not want to show anything inappropriate and does not want to appear, in any way, to affect the federal investigation of the Trump Department of Justice or and state prosecutors.
That hasn’t stopped Trump and the conservative media from saying exactly that, though — and worse. But now, with this verdict, and this is the only trial that Trump has faced before the election – although there are three other cases related to the election against him – expect Biden to support this.
The line that Biden has to walk is between being president and being a candidate. The White House counsel’s office did not comment, but the Biden campaign has weighed in, as the New York case shows “no one is above the law.”
Now, Biden has to choose. And now, they are a bit behind in the race. So the question is not whether Biden will talk about these beliefs, but whether he can deliver and implement them.
4. The decision to raise the stakes for the big moment comes up in the campaign.
There will be challenges for Biden and Trump now on how to play this to their respective advantage.
The quest started fast and furious. Trump and his successor immediately disputed the legitimacy of the ruling, and both campaigns quickly came out with statements and fundraising appeals.
This reflects the fact that this is the year of the presidential campaign, and each time will be more focused.
There will be some big moments that will present opportunities and risks for candidates:
- June 27: First, there is a preliminary debate that both candidates have agreed to, which will take place in less than a month. Can Biden use this effectively? Can Trump defend himself in a way that doesn’t alienate middle-class voters?
- July 15-18: The next signs are conventions. Republicans rose first in Milwaukee, just days after Trump’s scheduled sentencing in the case. Expect Trump and his team to try to use the week to rally the base, unite and make sure there are no cracks in the foundation.
- August 19-22: Then, it was the Democrats’ turn in Chicago. Can Biden use his confidence to strengthen his coalition, which shows some gaps now, and reassure voters who continue to question his mental fitness that he is ready to work? Remember, Democrats are also worried about potential protests that could make the party appear divided.
- September 10: It is the last debate, which kicks off the sprint to the finish and perhaps the last, great chance for one of the candidates to make their case. Early voting begins soon.
The campaign will be trying to get every last voter they think they need to vote to show up — and Trump’s confidence may be part of the campaign going forward.
